Word has it that Guitar Hero IV has a rumored pirce point of $179, and one has to wonder if they’re not shooting themselves in the foot here. Guitar Hero has dominated the rhythm music genre for the past two years, milking their poor cash cow past Dance Dance Revolution to the number one spot.
It’s not difficult to see which franchise has been more successful; Guitar Hero’s lifetime sales of around 8 million and brand awareness obliterates Rock Band’s one or two million sales. But looking at the pros and cons, I’m not sure that Guitar Hero IV is the “slam dunk” their executives no doubt think it is.
Pros:
- Guitar Hero brand is the premium rhythm game brand
- Plenty of great licensed songs
- GH III guitars might still work with GH IV
- New touch-sensitive guitar neck (presumably for pitch bending notes up)
Cons:
- Rock Band will have beaten GHIV to market by about a year
- Rock Band will have 258 songs available at GHIV launch
- Better than average chance customer already owns previous GH product, meaning a lack of ala carte instruments will have them feeling cheated at being forced to pay another $179 in addition to the $200 or so they’ve easily spent on your franchise to date
- Additionally, new guitar functionality might make previous owners feel ignored or outdated
- Featureset not really different enough from Rock Band to set itself apart in the marketplace
- Worst case scenario: Customer already owns competitor’s product, and doesn’t feel need to purchase GHIV
Looking at the situation, it’s a tough call to make here. Will the GH owner (of which there are many, many more than Rock Band) pony up the money to buy the $179 kit? While this argument was valid when Rock Band released, there’s a bit of a larger issue at stake here with GH IV.
Namely, the GH fan has most probably already bought at least two guitar peripherals by now, and there’s a decent chance they own guitar peripherals for two systems (PS2 and 360/PS3). Buying Rock Band was an easy choice for a lot of GH fans. They probably already owned one guitar for their 360, so by buying Rock Band, not only did they get the drums, a microphone, and the Rock Band guitar, they now had a complete set to rock out. The Rock Band guitar added the shred buttons, but those were optional, and to be honest, hardly used.
GHIV could very well be a tougher sell than Rock Band. By now, the folks who didn’t buy Rock Band ponied up for a second guitar (no doubt when they bought GHIII instead of Rock Band and got the wireless guitar), so now the boxed set will force them into a third guitar situation. If there is no ala carte hardware option, that fan could very well feel cheated, and just avoid the box set altogether.
But I could have it completely backwards. The Activision execs could just be banking on milking the GH teats for another software sequel, with the box set being a “value add” to the series. Although upon reflection this seems like a bit of a poor business model since the bulk of the software development is going to be supporting all of those other instruments.
One thing is for certain here: The majority of game software purchasers (talking mass market here) can only afford (or justify) one game system per generation, and with pricepoints above $150, I’m sure the same general rule applies to hardware peripherals, which in the past have been horrible sellers in the first place. Is Rock Band’s lead on the “band” rhythm game installed base going to prevail? Or will the brand awareness and the previously purchased guitars be seen as the gateway drug to get GH buyers to go in for the GH box set?
Did we really need a band rhythm game war? We already have console wars. Did we really need a peripheral battle too? Is GHIV going to launch rhythm games even further into the mainstream, or is it going to be the swan song of the genre? Sound off in the comments. I want to hear your opinions/debate on this.
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{ 9 comments… read them below or add one }
I’m amazed that you do not discuss here another major issue here, which is that GH is no longer made by Harmonix. They were the real creators of this genre, and they are the ones that know it best.
I think Neversoft made several mistakes in making GH III. However, because of the solid base of GH I and II, you can get away with making mediocre sequels for some time. Eventually, though, that approach will cost you sales.
You need to innovate wisely to continue to grow a series, and I have doubts in Neversoft’s ability to do that correctly.
Also, I think having incompatible peripherals will hurt GH IV, I think that really annoys consumers. It seems like they changed the drumkit, for example, for no better reason than to make it different from Rock Band.
“Worst case scenario: Customer already owns competitor’s product, and doesn’t feel need to purchase GHIV”
unless GH4 is compatible with the Rock Band instruments I already own, I can’t really justify buying ANOTHER $180 of video game instruments
I fully expect that Activision is providing the Band bundle solely to try and stymie RB adoption. I don’t even think their guitar-focused users have any interest in it.
So Activision will push a $90-ish Game+guitar bundle and move a few million units of that bundle + the game by itself and declare themselves lord and master of the guitar -and- band rhythm segments, even though the band bundle itself will move in (comparatively) negligible quantities.
I’d be stunned if the GH brand was enough to push their band bundle past Rock Band.
(I also expect Harmonix/MTV to announce RB2 and its planned features prior to GH IV’s release, prominently featuring forward-compatible DLC in their pitch. Oh, and a music-creation studio that doesn’t suck.)
“I’m amazed that you do not discuss here another major issue here, which is that GH is no longer made by Harmonix. They were the real creators of this genre, and they are the ones that know it best.”
As much as this matters to gamers like us, Joe gamer has no idea and likely does not care so long as it says guitar hero.
I think activision is really banking on brand loyalty and hoping that people continue buying their products based on name alone.
Of course I hope GHIV bombs since Rock band is FAR superior.
On a side completely arbitrary note, Guitar hero surpassed SINGSTAR not DDR. Just wanted to point that out since most people fail to recognize/acknowledge Singstar’s stranglehold on Europe.
I will pick it up because I’m a hardcore music gamer. I’ve been DDR’ing since I was 15 back in 03, I have owned a metal dance pad, owned Amplitude, the only 3 Guitar Heroes that matter, mastered Stepmania on the computer, owned Rock Band, Beatmania, I mean…honestly, the idea of a more realistic, velocity-sensitive drum kit is too enticing for me to pass up. I am pissed, however, to know that I’m going to have to buy the whole new kit. I know it won’t be compatible with my Rock Band mic, guitar, songs…it’s just going to be a real pain in the ass, especially space-wise. But I’ll do it anyway, that’s really the point.
My family’s (me and wife, 10/m and 8/f kids) bought all 4 Guitar Hero releases so far (1, 2, 80s, 3), as well as RockBand, and we’ll be getting GH:Aerosmith in a couple of weeks. We have two wired guitars from GH1 and GH2, and a RockBand set of wireless guitar, wired mike, and wired drums. All for PS2; our only foray into nextgen consoles has been the Wii, and calling it nextgen is being generous.
We’re looking forward to GH4, but if it requires we buy -new guitars-, that may end our relationship with the franchise. I’ll drop money on the new drumset along with the game, but if they make a whole new set of gear required to play their game, even for someone who’s been following them from the beginning, they’ll lose us.
A minor point:
“I know it won’t be compatible with my Rock Band mic, guitar, songs…”
As a minor point, there’s a chance that the Rock Band microphone will work with Guitar Hero IV.
Unlike guitar peripherals, microphones seem to be fairly widespread and standard. (with the exception of Singstar) A standard logitech headset that works with PCs and any voice chat enabled game also works for rock band, and the rock band mic works with older Karaoke Revolution games (also by harmonix).
I’m under the impression that microphone/headset type things are at least somewhat standardized, and thus it would be especially asinine of Activision to reinvent the wheel there.
The international situation is a bit different. In Australia (and other places) we’re still waiting for Rock Band to launch, and for a staggering price. If GH4 can move quickly it’ll step in before Rock Band has a chance to get any support. If it’s only a difference of months (and I’ve already waited so long) then there is a real decision to be made between RB and GH
I work in a K-12 school and therefore get to see a lot of these arguments from a different point of view. I also happened to take Rock Band into the school for an end-of-year celebration and have seen how that was reacted to.
The kids already don’t know the difference. Rock Band and Guitar Hero are interchangeable terms in their eyes. The conversations while kids were in line to play went back and forth between track lists in this game and that game and who had which ones, etc. In the community that I work in, it is only the price point that kept families from purchasing Rock Band, and I believe it will be the same with GHIV.
I even heard one group of friends (probably 4th graders or so) that had had three families each put in an equal amount so that they could buy RB together…it spends a week and one family’s house then rotates, but the kids travel to whichever house it is to play it.
Parents have already spent $300-$400 on a console and don’t understand why they should drop another $200 for a single game when that would buy 10 budget titles. Unless GHIV can offer that kit at a lower price, they are going to be the same way.